As your real estate professional, it's my job to constantly read into the data and understand how the market is changing. Here's the latest on New Jersey Real Estate as of October 2024. 1. Increase in Listings with Decline in Sales Middlesex County has experienced a substantial increase in new property listings this year. For single-family homes, new listings rose by 5.1% year-to-date. However, closed sales have not kept pace, showing a 7.5% decline in single-family sales. This contrast suggests a growing inventory paired with buyer caution, possibly influenced by fluctuating mortgage rates and economic conditions. Similarly, townhouse and condo listings grew by 7.5%, with a slight 3.5% drop in closed sales, indicating cautious buyer activity in these segments as well. 2. Shorter Days on Market, Indicating High Demand Despite fewer closed sales, the “days on market until sale” metric has declined across all property types. For single-family homes, the days on market decreased from 40 to 34 days year-to-date—a 15% reduction. Townhouses and condos also saw a 15.2% reduction in market time, indicating strong demand for quicker transactions and potentially competitive buying conditions. 3. Median Sales Price Shows Notable Increases The median sales price across all property types has risen. Single-family homes reached a median price of $575,000, marking an 11.7% increase year-over-year. Townhouse-condo properties followed this trend, with a 12.6% price increase, reaching a median of $416,500. Adult communities recorded a 14.6% rise in median sales prices, highlighting a broader countywide rise in property values. This price growth reflects consistent demand and limited supply, even as new listings enter the market. 4. Decline in Inventory and Supply Levels The inventory of homes for sale has decreased, with single-family home inventory down by 17.4%. Townhouse-condo inventory also dropped, albeit more modestly, by 5.9%. Months of supply—a measure of how long it would take to sell current inventory at the current sales pace—has declined for single-family homes, indicating a tightening market. 5. Slight Dip in List Price Received One metric that has shown a slight drop is the percentage of list price received. Single-family homes have maintained high levels, at 104.4% year-to-date, yet this represents only a 1.5% increase. This metric decreased slightly for townhouses and condos, indicating a slight shift in negotiation power back toward buyers in certain segments. Summary The 2024 Middlesex County real estate market is characterized by increased listings and fewer closed sales, revealing buyer caution alongside steady demand. Although there are more listings, properties are selling faster, and prices continue to rise, pointing to a market resilient to economic pressures. The landscape remains dynamic, with affordability, economic stability, and inventory levels playing critical roles as the year progresses.

  Trump’s Plan to Build Housing on Federal Land: What It Could Mean for the Housing CrisisExploring the potential of federal land development under Trump’s second term. As President Donald Trump begins his second term, housing advocates and industry experts are closely examining what his proposals could mean for addressing the nation’s growing housing affordability crisis. One of the most notable ideas involves opening up federal land for housing development, a move that could reshape the conversation around affordable housing. Federal Land as a Housing Solution Throughout his campaign, Trump emphasized deregulation, tax cuts, and lowering mortgage rates as cornerstones of his housing policy. He also proposed making federal land available to developers, requiring a portion of housing units to remain affordable for local communities. The U.S. government controls approximately 650 million acres of land. By selling parcels to private developers under specific affordability requirements, Trump aims to stimulate housing construction while leveraging the private sector's efficiency. “The private sector is better positioned to build affordable housing, and there’s nothing wrong with them making a profit as long as the housing remains accessible to working-class families,” said David Dworkin, president of the National Housing Conference. However, past attempts to use federal land for affordable housing have faced significant opposition. Critics argue that nearby residents often resist these projects, preferring to keep their neighborhoods untouched. Challenges to Implementation While the plan holds potential, experts caution that logistical and environmental hurdles must be addressed. Andrew Jakabovics, vice president for policy development at Enterprise Community Partners, notes that much of the federally owned land is in rural or remote areas, which complicates construction. “Building in the middle of nowhere isn’t feasible due to the cost of transporting materials and labor,” he said. Instead, Jakabovics suggests focusing on underutilized federal land within urban and suburban areas where infrastructure, schools, and amenities already exist. This approach could maximize housing production while minimizing environmental and logistical challenges. Labor and Economic Impacts Another significant challenge lies in the labor market. A substantial portion of construction workers are undocumented immigrants, according to census data, and Trump’s promise to increase deportations could disrupt the workforce. “About a third of construction workers are non-citizens,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “Sudden labor shortages could delay projects and increase costs, making the plan harder to execute.” Lessons from Recent Initiatives The Trump administration isn’t the first to explore using federal land for housing. Just last month, the Biden-Harris administration sold 20 acres of federal land in southern Nevada to Clark County for $2,000—a fraction of its $20 million value. The land will be used to build 210 affordable homes for families earning $70,000 or less, demonstrating a successful model for leveraging public land to address housing needs. Balancing Profit and Affordability Experts agree that balancing developers’ profit motives with affordability requirements is critical to the success of such initiatives. “Developers will naturally target the most viable opportunities,” Dworkin explained. “The government needs a process that ensures fairness and equity while encouraging private investment.” Jakabovics added that addressing the housing crisis requires building in high-demand areas, not just coastal cities but also growing regions like Phoenix, Omaha, and Nashville. Looking Ahead While Trump’s federal land proposal has sparked debate, many are skeptical about its feasibility. Critics point to his campaign rhetoric, which avoided discussions of subsidized housing, and question whether much of the federal land available has real market value. Nonetheless, the housing crisis remains a pressing issue. As homelessness and affordability challenges grow, the nation will need bold solutions to increase housing supply and address the needs of working-class families. Whether Trump’s plan can deliver meaningful progress remains to be seen. For now, housing advocates are calling for bipartisan collaboration to address these challenges. As Dworkin put it, “There’s a lot of common ground to make progress on—and this is one of them.”

Why a Housing Crash Isn’t on the HorizonHomeowners are financially secure, and the data shows little cause for concern. As 2024 draws to a close, the long-standing predictions of a housing market crash continue to miss the mark. Updated credit data from the New York Federal Reserve provides solid evidence that today’s homeowners are in a significantly stronger position compared to the pre-2008 era. Let’s explore why the current market is fundamentally different. Foreclosure Data: A New Reality The 2008 housing crisis didn’t happen overnight; it was years in the making. Toxic credit practices from 2005 to 2008, such as adjustable-rate loans with ballooning payments, created widespread financial instability. This led to a surge in foreclosures, exacerbated by the job losses of the Great Recession. Today, however, the landscape is entirely different. Following the introduction of the Qualified Mortgage (QM) rule in 2010, most loans are now stable 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Refinancing waves in recent years have also helped homeowners lock in low interest rates, improving their financial standing. As a result, foreclosure rates have been consistently low. Simply put, the conditions for a 2008-style housing crash no longer exist. FICO Scores Show Financial Strength The creditworthiness of today’s homeowners is a key factor in the market's stability. Homebuyers now typically have high FICO scores, which reflect improved underwriting standards and healthier financial habits. Additionally, rising wages and better cash flow have bolstered the financial health of homeowners, ensuring they can manage their mortgage obligations with less stress. Credit Stress Remains Low While every economic cycle brings challenges, the severe credit stress experienced during the 2008 crisis is unlikely to be repeated. Thanks to stricter lending standards and the prevalence of 30-year fixed mortgages, homeowners are better equipped to weather economic downturns. Even during periods of economic strain, such as the early days of COVID-19 and the inflationary pressures of the past few years, homeowners have remained resilient. Interestingly, credit stress levels have yet to return to pre-pandemic norms, despite expectations. This is another sign that the market is far from the distressed conditions of the 2008 era. New Listings Highlight Market Stability One telling sign of market health is the level of new home listings. Data from Altos Research shows that new listings in 2024 are at their lowest levels in years—just 48,863 for a recent week in November. For context, during the same period in 2009, there were 274,614 new listings, with similarly high numbers in 2010 and 2011. Back then, many of these listings came from financially stressed sellers, which flooded the market and drove prices down. Today, such distressed selling is virtually nonexistent. Strong Equity and Low Debt Levels Another factor insulating the housing market from a crash is homeowners’ equity. Over 40% of homes are owned outright, with no mortgage. Among those with loans, the average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is under 50%. Compare that to 2008, when the average LTV was nearly 85%, and you see a stark difference in financial security. Additionally, the median down payment for 2024 stands at 15%, giving homeowners a solid stake in their properties. A Reassuring Conclusion For anyone predicting a repeat of the 2008 housing crash, the data tells a different story. Homeowners are in a strong financial position, supported by sound lending practices, low foreclosure rates, and significant equity. This Thanksgiving, if someone at the dinner table insists that a housing crash is imminent, share these insights. The numbers paint a clear picture: today’s housing market is built on a foundation of financial stability, not the shaky practices of the past.